Reexamining the Long-Run Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis－Power Evidence and TAR Unit Root Test for the OECD Countries

• Main Authors: Shu-Ming Liu, 劉書銘
• Other Authors: Cheng-Feng Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ndkmgx

碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 96 === This paper reexamines the long-run real interest rate parity of the OECD countries by using the unit root test proposed by Ng and Perron (2001) and by the application of simulation to establish the small sample distribution under the null and the alternative hypothesis. By using the small sample distribution of the unit root statistics, we can make sure that first, size distortions are not the reasons contributing to the rejection of the fact that the alternative hypothesis is unit root. Second, the inference that the low power is not necessary causes the not rejecting the alternative hypothesis is correct. If still can not decide which distributions might cause the real interest difference series by comparing the unit root statistics and the relative location of the small sample distribution, we test that whether the series are asymmetric in those countries which we can not decide what kind of distributions they are by the threshold autoregression model proposed by Caner and Hansen (2001). Finally, the empirical results indicate that the RIPH holds in Australia、Belgium、Canada、Finland、France、Germany、Japan and Sweden whenever data frequency under linear time series model. Under quarterly data of Italy and United Kingdom and monthly data of Denmark, it turns out that the data have the traits of nonlinear time series model. Besides, the evidence of supporting the long-run real interest rate parity can not be reached and the phenomena that partial unit root exist in United Kingdom and Denmark.