| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 營建工程系 === 96 === Land is a basic element for the construction industry, and huge capitals are usually required in the investment of construction projects. Therefore, in the land development process, construction firms will carefully evaluate land development conditions so as to avoid serious losses caused by investment failure. However, land development decisions are characterized by irreversibility and deferability, and the future market conditions are usually highly uncertain, so option value had considered in land development decisions. The traditional discounted cash flow is not considered “management flexibility”. Value As a result, based on the concept of real option, this study attempted to establish an evaluation model for land development investment projects. The concept of real options has been extensively applied in the research of criteria of land development decisions. The B-S model is usually employed to investigate the impact of uncertainties of future real estate price and rent level on vacant land value and optimal development timing. Focusing on multiple real options, this study adopted Log-Transformed Binomial (LTB) to construct a multiple option evaluation model based on the four options, including option to defer, option to contract, option to abandon, and option to expand. The results showed that in the land development decision making process, is having uncertain and multiple options valus, thus, it will be influenced the estimation return.
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