The Simulation and Social Benefits of Greenhouse Gas and Criteria Air Pollutants Reduction in Taipei City by System Dynamic Model STELLA

• Main Authors: Hong-Jhih Lin, 林泓志
• Other Authors: 曾昭衡
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/bnhy6j

碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 環境工程與管理研究所 === 96 === This thesis aims at applying STELLA in constructing the systematic dynamic model of four kinds of Criteria air pollutants （NOX、SOX、PM10 and CO） in Taipei City’s residence business and transportation sectors. The relation between Criteria air pollutants and sectors, as well as health effects – including living years and expenditure needed – and related pollution reducing initiatives are showed with a systematic feedback method. This research could not only be served as a social benefits outcomes indicator of the mixture of greenhouse gases and Criteria air pollutants, but also a reference to related governmental authorities when forming policies. The outcomes indicate that the volume of Criteria air pollutants (PM10 + SOX + NOX + CO) would rise to 282,809 tons in 2030 from 181,168 tons in 2007 – a 64.06% growth rate. Among them, the transportation sector claims the largest part: 86%, while the residence business sector comes after: 14% of total volume. Combining the reduction ratio of Taipei City’s residence business and transportation sectors after conducting the reduction initiatives, if “Modest Policy Commitment Scenario” is applied, the total volume will reduce 50,255 tons (17.77%) in 2030, if “Major Policy Commitment Scenario” is applied, the total volume will reduce 84,308 tons (29.82%), or if “Full Implementation Scenario” is applied, then the total volume will reduce 110,045.48 tons (38.92%). If combined with equipments and policies relating pollutions in TEDs 6.1, in 2021, total volume of Criteria air pollutants vented would be 68,898 tons. However, considering the costs and social benefits relating Criteria air pollutants and the increase in living years, after all applicable initiatives upon Criteria air pollutants’ density are carried out, citizens in Taipei could gain 80.53 hours of life, with a cost of 15,261,356 thousand dollars per hour. The results of mixed greenhouse gases and Criteria air pollutants are showing a 39.762 cost-effect ratio. Compared with the average cost-effect ratio of 1.72 per year during 2007-2030 of Taipei City, the plans are showing social gains under applicable initiatives in residence business and transportation sectors.