| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 土木與防災研究所 === 96 === The Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method (MCDM) means to evaluate asset of alternatives in terms of a number of critera. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) are the two major MCDM methods that have recently become increasingly popular. By organizing and assessing alternatives against a hierarchy of multifaceted objectives, AHP provides a proven, effective means to deal with complx decision making. It also assesses the relative importance of multiple choice criteria, which result in a better, easier, and more efficite identification of selected criteria and their weighting as well as analysis. The FAHP, on the other hand, when incorporated with fuzzy logic to AHP, manages to adopt the environmental uncertainty and suggest the relative strength of the factors in the corresponding criteria with fuzzy judgrement matrix to facilitate decision-making. This study aims to determine the relative significance of 12 indexes adopted in a GIS-based combined index model, which has been developed to assess the disaster potential and ecological impairment around hillside areas. Three weighting methods, AHP, FAHP, and modified fuzzy theory integration, are employed in this model, and the result shows that slope, rainfall, debris-flow-prone stream and land use are the four more important indexes than the others. This further concludes expert opinions to consider these indexes to be critical factors in assessing the disaster potential. Compared with the other two weighting methods, the modified fuzzy theory integration method reflects the expert opinions in a more objective way and contributes more to the establishment of the relative importance of 12 indexes. Moreover, the combined-index score produced by model indicates the ecological impairment and disaster potential. When the modified model is applied to hillsides around Kaohsiung city, the highest-scored part in Kaohsiung metropolitan area turns out to be the southwest to Shou Shan and the over-developing backside of National Sun Yat-Sen University, where two debris-flow-prone streams stay nearby and landslides have broken out in the past decades. The model is hereby validated to effectively identify the critical areas with high disaster potential, which will warn the agencies of precaution and remind them of further investigation on those sites by establishing effective engineering measures.
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