| Summary: | 碩士 === 中臺科技大學 === 醫護管理研究所 === 97 === Background: The demands and manpower planning of long-term care have become an important issue because of the increasing aging population, people with chronic illness, and disabled people, in addition, the changing of family function and increasing demand in post-acute care. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to discuss present supply and demand of manpower and estimate manpower needs for nursing staffs, aides, social workers, care managers, and care supervisors for long-term care in Taichung city in 2010, 2015, and 2020. Methods: There are four models to estimate manpower, including the fixed population ratio, the resources growth ratio, the service utilization ratio, and ten years plan of long-term care in Taiwan. Besides, using job analysis to survey whether manpower allocation was rational or not, and raised accuracy of estimation. Results: The results of this study indicated that the present manpower of long-term care consisted of 286 nursing staffs, 805 aides, 31 social workers, 6 care managers, and 1 care supervisor in Taichung city in 2007. In 2010, 2015, and 2020, demand of manpower will be 356, 458, 519 nursing staffs, 1,192, 1,492, 1,870 aides, 53, 68, 82 social workers, 14~24, 29~48, 36~59 care managers, and 3~5, 6~10, 7~12 care supervisors. Conclusions: The manpower of long-term care is adequately allocationed in the present time under the laws and regulations for Taichung city. The model 2 called the resources growth ratio was a more accurate model for estimating manpower in long-term care. The manpower estimation used ten years plan of long-term care in Taiwan was underestimated owning to the difference of estimation basis and variables.
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