The Research of Financial Distress Stages and Symptom

• Main Authors: Han-Yun Yang, 楊涵雲
• Other Authors: Su-Hui Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65327932318677984517

碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 會計所 === 97 === In this era of frequent corporate crises, frequent failure of many enterprises and the closure of the case, in the past many scholars have financial difficulties for the enterprises to determine with the early warning model, but the financial difficulties of enterprises happen the complexity of factors, and environmental variability, there are still places worth exploring. Happen when a company''s financial difficulties, not only are companies facing difficulties, but also the community at large impact on society as a whole, the economy will affect the financial difficulties can cause a lot of reasons, including poor management, investment failure, fraud, poor economy. The present study be made in advance from the ownership structure, profitability, financial structure and so on for the prediction that the financial crisis happened because of corporate non-moment, the point should have different characteristics, so in the financial crisis prediction model should be set up to consider the crisis happen before the stage of evolution before they can have better prediction ability. The present study: (1) According to the scholars and the present study was to explore the six identified areas, namely, by the profit ability, financial structure, ownership structure, credit rating, corporate governance and earnings management. (2) prior to the occurrence of financial difficulties during the period will be divided into three stages, these six aspects in this phase were to identify three main features, will be at different stages have different characteristics. (3) the use of (2) identify the characteristics of the three stages set up the financial difficulties of prediction model. (4) the use of in 2006 years and 2007 years of data, verify that the three stages of the financial difficulties of prediction model prediction ability , and with the other three single-stage prediction model compared. This findings discovered that, (1) T test using a three-stage selection in six dimensions, all have different characteristics. (2) The use of the above-mentioned (1) establish the characteristics of selected forecasting model to forecast next year''s information. (3) The characteristics of the forecast model is fixed, but the prediction model of the sample during the year will be different with the forecast change is to improve the forecast accuracy. (4) The empirical results show that regardless of partition points of the three stages of this study than the single-stage prediction model for accurate prediction model. The present study found that three- Step have different characteristics, and can be characterized by the establishment of forecasting model, simply change the information to create a model during the study period, the ability to forecast more accurately; The present study is expected to multi-stage prediction model than single-stage prediction model is accurate, and society will be able to multi-stage prediction model, to avoid financial crisis happened because of business brought about by injury. Key Words: Financial Distress, Corporate Governance, Three- Step Prediction model, Symptom