| Summary: | 碩士 === 玄奘大學 === 國際企業學系碩士班 === 97 === This study uses the Gravity model established by Bergstrand (1985) to analysis the influence of regional economic integration in East-Asia. We also try to simulate the effect to Taiwan’s trade flows when China participate ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010.
Our empirical data collected from 2000 to 2007, sampling GDP, exchange rate, population, distance etc. from 14 countries including ten ASEAN members, China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. The research results show that GDP, population, exchange rate have positive effect to bilateral trade flows. The simulation result indicates that in 2010, China participate ASEAN will decrease Japan, Korea, Taiwan’s export to ASEAN countries, but will increase the bilateral trade flows between China and ASEAN members.
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