| Summary: | 碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 97 === The electronic related products had become the largest category of the Taiwan export products since 2000, and represent 34.1% of the total Taiwan export value in 2008. However, through the global financial crisis which occurred in the second half of 2008, the export orders was declined significantly, which also deteriorated the profitability of these electronic companies. Therefore, it is crucial to develop an early warning model to predict corporate financial distress and to provide reliable decision criteria for the management team of the corporate, institutional and retail investors.
The sample in this study is composed of sixteen financial-distressed and thirty-two financial-soundness listed electronic companies on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and over-the-counter market. In our methodology, the first step is applying the statistics hypothesis testing to evaluate and determine the effectiveness of variables. Second, we use static Logit model and dynamic CUSUM model to develop our version of an early warning model. Third, use the 2008 data to test the precision rate of these two models. In conclusion, the empirical results suggest that CUSUM model reaches a higher precision rate of 76.67% than 67.78% of Logit model. CUSUM model can also predict the turning point and trends of the worsening financial conditions of companies eight seasons before the actual financial crisis takes place. In other words, a dynamic model is more effective and accurate than a static model to predict the business operations of the Listed Electronic companies in Taiwan.
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