The Relationship Analysis between Oil Price and Consumer Price Index

• Main Authors: Chia-Yu Tseng, 曾嘉郁
• Other Authors: 作者未提供
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ba528n

碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 經濟學系碩士班 === 97 === With the progress of human civilization, it can be expected and the resources were also gradually depleted the energy crisis has been inevitable. Due to the scarcity of oil, difficult to substitute, and huge demand of markets, the international crude oil price unlikely decreases. Review of the literature, even though oil price and that many scholars have written, but seldom has the literature to explore oil and direct relation with inflation. Turning to review empirical research, even though many scholars stress the issue of oil price movement but rarely investigate the interrelationship between oil price and inflation. Therefore, this study aimed at developing countries and developed countries to study, and examine changes in the international oil price impact on the level of countries, as well as with its economic meanings. The main results are as followed: (1) Form CCC-GARCH variance equation, it shows that a significant GARCH effect can be found, and the volatility is affected by the variation of previous period. The CPI is strong persistent in mean equation. (2) Such an outcome should coincide with the subjective views of the general public, because price fluctuations directly affect the livelihood of public; However the volatility of oil prices also affect the relative volatility of the situation but relatively ignored. (3) In addition, the comparison of the effect of the volatility spillover results showed that in developing countries （China, the Philippines, Thailand）the change of CPI is move volatile than developed countries （the United States,France）due to oil price movement. The result is consistent with International Energy Agency（IEA）