The Analysis of Decision-Making Adjustment Model for Renminbi (RMB) Exchange Rate

• Main Authors: Chen, Li-Hsin, 陳立心
• Other Authors: Hu, Jin-Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/14853224107652481800

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班經營管理組 === 97 === As the economic and strategic importance of China grows fast, the RMB exchange rate has attracted international attention. The People’s Bank of China must take into account China's employment as well as trade interest while managing the RMB exchange rate. This article applies the Swan (1960) model to analyze the RMB exchange rate adjustment decision-making. The Chinese government uses both of the fiscal and exchange rate policies to improve its macroeconomic performance. The major findings are as follows: (1) The Swan model can predict the RMB adjustment decisions very well. (2) For the current global financial turmoil, the Chinese government is very likely to use expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, as well as mildly let RMB appreciate against major currencies other than USD. (3) Before mainland China unemployment rate significantly drops, the RMB exchange rate against USD will still maintain stable.