The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures
碩士 === 南華大學 === 財務金融學系財務管理碩士班 === 97 === The volatilities of oil prices are important to global economics, and gold also plays an important hedge role for predicting the depreciation in U.S. dollar and the inflation. Therefore, investigating the relationship among oil, gold and U.S. dollar are ess...
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ndltd-TW-097NHU053040282016-05-04T04:16:46Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/72907275009464132919 The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures 石油、黃金與美元指數期貨波動外溢效果之探討 Ya-hui Wu 吳雅惠 碩士 南華大學 財務金融學系財務管理碩士班 97 The volatilities of oil prices are important to global economics, and gold also plays an important hedge role for predicting the depreciation in U.S. dollar and the inflation. Therefore, investigating the relationship among oil, gold and U.S. dollar are essential. This paper analyzes the spillover effects among oil futures, gold futures and the U.S. dollar futures using VARMA-GARCH(1,1) model, and we also discuss that whether the relationships are different in the period of depreciation and appreciation of U.S. dollar. The empirical results find that the relationships are much closer and the volatility spillover effects are also stronger after 2001, the period of depreciation. In the period of appreciation, the factors that appreciating the U.S dollar are not related to oil or gold price volatilities. The bi-direct spillover effects only exist between gold and U.S. dollar index, and the volatilities of gold and U.S. dollar are spillover to oil volatility, but the reverse spillover effects are not exist. However, along with the depreciation in U.S. dollar, the substitute effects are paid much attention in gold assets, at the same time, oil prices turn upward and the leading role in economy is much improved. The spillovers are turn into the opposite situation, that is, the volatility of oil price is spillover to the volatilities of gold and U.S. dollar, and the reverse spillovers effects are not exist. The relationships among three assets change over time, therefore, the results are important for investors. Wan-hsiu Cheng Jui-chen Chung 鄭婉秀 張瑞真 2009 學位論文 ; thesis 43 zh-TW |
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碩士 === 南華大學 === 財務金融學系財務管理碩士班 === 97 === The volatilities of oil prices are important to global economics, and gold also plays an important hedge role for predicting the depreciation in U.S. dollar and the inflation. Therefore, investigating the relationship among oil, gold and U.S. dollar are essential. This paper analyzes the spillover effects among oil futures, gold futures and the U.S. dollar futures using VARMA-GARCH(1,1) model, and we also discuss that whether the relationships are different in the period of depreciation and appreciation of U.S. dollar. The empirical results find that the relationships are much closer and the volatility spillover effects are also stronger after 2001, the period of depreciation. In the period of appreciation, the factors that appreciating the U.S dollar are not related to oil or gold price volatilities. The bi-direct spillover effects only exist between gold and U.S. dollar index, and the volatilities of gold and U.S. dollar are spillover to oil volatility, but the reverse spillover effects are not exist. However, along with the depreciation in U.S. dollar, the substitute effects are paid much attention in gold assets, at the same time, oil prices turn upward and the leading role in economy is much improved. The spillovers are turn into the opposite situation, that is, the volatility of oil price is spillover to the volatilities of gold and U.S. dollar, and the reverse spillovers effects are not exist. The relationships among three assets change over time, therefore, the results are important for investors.
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Wan-hsiu Cheng |
author_facet |
Wan-hsiu Cheng Ya-hui Wu 吳雅惠 |
author |
Ya-hui Wu 吳雅惠 |
spellingShingle |
Ya-hui Wu 吳雅惠 The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures |
author_sort |
Ya-hui Wu |
title |
The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures |
title_short |
The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures |
title_full |
The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures |
title_fullStr |
The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Volatility Spillover Effects among Oil, Gold and US Dollar Index Futures |
title_sort |
volatility spillover effects among oil, gold and us dollar index futures |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/72907275009464132919 |
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