| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 自然資源與環境管理研究所 === 97 === As the industrial activities become more frequent alone with the improvement of productivity, the energy demand was thus increased tremendously. The fossil fuels were being consumed in large quantities as a consequence and caused environmental damage. It has been scientifically proven that the fossil fuel does give off greenhouse gas during combustion and causes global warming that aroused international concern; therefore, the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 to regulate the emission of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases composed mainly of carbon dioxide and according to WEO (World Energy Outlook 2006), the electricity sector has the highest carbon dioxide emission. An appropriate electricity supply planning is a problem that, for the time being, every country has to deal with.
Taiwan’s electricity sector was facing is the same as what other countries were confronting. As the electricity demand increases, the emission of carbon dioxide should be taken into consideration at the same time when drawing up applicable electricity supply planning. However, Taiwan’s energy resources is not as abundant as other countries, and as a consequence, we encounter more difficulties in electricity supply planning. In this study, the multi-objective planning method was applied in constructing the electricity supply planning model and scenarios were designed based on the three major topics, namely: low-carbon energy, CO2 reduction, and comprehensive development, with the low-carbon energy topic being further divided into two sub topics, namely: nuclear energy development and renewable energy development. The total seven policy scenarios were analysis and simulated to provide reference for decision makers in developing electricity supply model that conform to the reality as well as achieve the goal of minimizing total electricity generation cost and carbon dioxide emission.
The results show as followings：
(1)The nuclear energy scenarios：
According to the result of scenario simulation, coal-fired steam turbine and gas-fired combined cycle would be introduced into the electricity system to make up the reduced amount of electricity generated when nuclear were cut back. Therefore, in regard to power generation cost goal, the cost would be increased. On the other hand, from the aspect of carbon dioxide emission, the amount would increase if nuclear were not increased. The result showed that nuclear did have reduction benefits.
(2)The renewable energy scenarios：
According to the result, the power generation cost had the tendency of increasing when renewable energy had a substantial increase. As to the carbon dioxide emission goal, the renewable energy obviously had benefits in reducing emission. However, the reduction benefits would drop if the margin of increase of such renewable energy was too small.
(3)CO2 reduction scenarios：
It is shown in power generation cost goal that as the restriction goal of CO2 emission varies, the cost would also vary. Moreover, as the restriction became stricter, the cost of power generation would increase since the gas-fired units would be introduced into the electricity system. Consequently, the fuel choice would be shifted to the natural gas, which had higher variable coast. As a whole, the stricter carbon dioxide emission restriction goal leads to higher power generation cost.
(4)Comprehensive development scenarios：
The results of scenario simulation showed that gas-fired unit was needed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emission when renewable energy and nuclear energy development were restricted. Accordingly, the power generation cost rise. Therefore, in order to prevent the increase of gas-fired units and to cut down the high variable cost caused by it, when carbon dioxide emission limitation got stricter, the nuclear must be employed.
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