| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 自然資源與環境管理研究所在職專班 === 97 === According to the report from Energy Information Administration, world demand for liquids fuels and other petroleum is expected to increase more rapidly in the transportation sector than in any other end-use sector over the next 25 years. The statistics from many of developed countries indicates domestic energy demand and CO2 emissions still increase every year. To manage using energy for Energy security, reducing CO2 emissions and economy growth are important policy under the challenges, global warming, energy crisis and high oil price.
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of road transportation constitute over 90 percent of transportation sector. Through System Dynamics, we establish a model including road vehicles, road activity, energy consumption and CO2 emissions. And, design some scenarios as below: (1) scenario 1 - raise fuel efficiency standard for new vehicles every year. (2) Scenario 2- promote high fuel efficiency cars and alternative fuels. (3) Scenario 3 - strenuously promote high fuel efficiency cars and alternative fuels. (4) Scenario 4 - impose energy tax. (5) Scenario 5- combined scenario 1 with scenario 2. (6) Scenario 6 - combined scenario 1, scenario 2 and scenario 4. (7) Scenario 7- combined scenario 1, Scenario 3 and scenario 4. On each scenario, this study assessed energy saving and CO2 reduction, and gained the result to meet targets set in the national energy conference. These scenarios are divided into individual scenarios (scenario 1, scenario 2, scenario 3 and scenario 4.) and combined scenarios (scenario 5, scenario 6 and scenario 7).
The result of this study showed the effects of each individual scenario of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction are in turns with scenario 4, scenario 1, scenario 3 and scenario 2. For combined scenario, it showed the effects of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction are in turns with scenario 7, scenario 6 and scenario 5. Scenario 5 is likely the most effective strategy in energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of road transportation in Taiwan now. Estimating scenario 5, energy consumption amounted to 15,898.96 million liters and CO2 emissions amounted to 37,936,419 tons in 2020. Comparing to base scenario in 2020, energy saving amounted to 862.28 million liters and CO2 emissions reduction amounted to 2,454,367 tons. The rates of goal achieving are 30.0% and 36.2% respectively and trend of both energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2020 will grow slowly. But, it still can not go back to the level of 2005 in the year 2020. The result of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of scenario 7 in 2020 reached going back to the level of 2005 in the year 2020 very closely. Comparing to the base scenario in 2020, energy saving amounted to 2,555.71 million liters and CO2 emission reduction amounted to 6,591,474 tons. The rates of goal achieving are 89.0% and 97.2% respectively.
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