| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 森林環境暨資源學研究所 === 97 === Bioethanol is a renewable resource as petroleum substitution, relieving the energy and environmental problems effectively. The purpose of the thesis is devising and assessing the management plan which is using short rotation woody crops on gasification and catalyst of bioethanol in Taiwan. At first, according to the characteristics of White Popinac (Leucaena leucocephala), Mosochiku (Phyllostachys pubescens) and Taiwan Acacia (Acacia confuse), and to draw up the business plan for forestry farms produce timber and bamboo for bioethanol manufacturers to produce bioethanol. Second, Using cost benefit analysis turns input cost and output benefit into price, then assess net present value, benefit-cost ratio, internal rent to these three business plans; furthermore, choose the important parameters to perform sensitivity analysis. In the end, consult assessment result to draft government energy policy.
This research shows the gradation of these three business plans in intensive farming is White Popinac, Mosochiku and Taiwan Acacia; the gradation of Ethanol production in unit area is Mosochiku 6.12 kl/ha/y, White Popinac 4.77 kl/ha/y, Taiwan Acacia 4.10 kl/ha/y. The gradation of cost benefit analysis in net present value is White Popinac 130.3 million dollars, Mosochiku 7.5 million dollars, Taiwan Acacia -514.2 million dollars. By sensitive analysis, timber, bamboo production and bioethanol price both are important parameters. In addition, White Popinac business plan with better risk endurance than Mosochiku. According to energy policy, when the goal of policy is adding 3% ethanol to gasoline, government need to spend 25.28 billion dollars on subsidies and gasoline and consumers of gasoline have to increase 21.12 billion dollars.
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