| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 會計與管理決策組 === 97 === The industry, while making the great investment decision, needed putting into the huge fund cost. Also the investment has irreversibility and market demand fluctuation induced the uncertainty and risk, so there must be proper decision analytical methods in the investment decision process to reduce the risk and improving managerial flexibility. This paper is probed into the semiconductor testing industry optimized investment decision making under uncertain market conditions and how to use the wait real option of managerial flexibility to reduce the risk.
The semiconductor testing industry highly involved the capital investment and there is no mutual operation difference neither the vertical integration to maximize the value chain positioning but as the cost competition. The market condition is highly correlated to semiconductor industry volatility so the best investment decision model includes economic scale to lower the cost or wait real option to optimize the investment timing to capture the maximized profit. Besides the investment decision, proper managerial flexibility can reduce risk actively to enhance the competition including outsourcing, in-sourcing, standardization, restructure the industry value chain or alliance with partners.
This research is base on real option to use the simulation approach by considering the market demand volatility results the value of different investment decisions with managerial flexibility, and provides the manager actively flexible management benefit. From the decision making model also analyzing different variables and scenarios as management priority.
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