| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 企業管理學系 === 97 === The business of retail chain stores have been blooming in Taiwan in recent ten years. The most obvious success is the growth and economies of scale of the store. For instance, supermarket could raise their bargaining power about 5 to 7 % when they set up ten new stores. Therefore, the businesses of retail chain stores have become the main stream of various industries. However, with the change of consumers’ habits, merchandise’s product life cycle have shortened gradually. Thus, it is a significant subject to regulate electronic information, the change of market and environments and to enhance the effectivness of supply chain when facing the competitive environment in the retail business.
Recent retail businesses usually use the historical figures to forecast the future sales amount. But the staffs that place an order for goods often ignore some key factors of external elements such as temperature and the change of sale territory, etc. Besides, there is no specific forecasting model. Thus retail stores may suffer sales loss.
First of all, this article conducts the importance analysis for tea drink in retail business. And then, utilize the rolling forecast and time series analysis methods through CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) for the forecast of daily sales. And then this article apply the parameter of temperature change to different kinds of merchandises such as best sellers, Unsalable goods and new products，and reproduce to other stores in order to verify the optimal model.
The optimal model could be applied to sales forecast in every kind of retail business, which could narrow down the difference between forecasting and realistic figures of sale amounts.
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