The Effects of Credit Policy on Macroeconomic in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Lu -Ya Wang, 王侶雅
• Other Authors: Nai-Fong Kuo
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09826191179792587847

碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 97 === In recent years, finance liberalization and diversification has rapidly become the trend of financial development. Financial authorities all over the world constantly take actions on finance liberalization. With the creation of financial products, the channels of Taiwanese enterprises to raise funds have transformed from traditional indirect finance to direct finance. Accordingly, enterprises raise long-term and short-term funds with lower cost in primary and monetary markets. The languid growth rate of indirect finance, which used to focus on debts, and finance intermediary, which have been playing important roles in banking systems, has been both replaced by the development of direct finance. The purpose of this dissertation not only illustrates the transformation of financial markets and analyses the decisive factors which influence Taiwanese credit policy but also discusses the effects of credit policy on macroeconomic in Taiwan. The ratios of Direct Finance to Indirect Finance are the variables of credit policy agent. The interest rates of top 5 banks, unemployment rate and Consumer Price Index all substitute microeconomic variables. In the articles, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is conducted to test data stationary analysis. In addition, Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition are utilized to discuss the interrelationship between the ratios of direct finance to indirect finance and microeconomic variables. The empirical research indicates: 1、The change of unemployment rate does influence credit policy (the ratios of direct finance to indirect finance) and the change is negatively correlated with the ratio. 2、The change of unemployment rate indeed influences interest rate and they are negatively correlated. 3、CPI is affected by unemployment rate and the impulse response is negative.