A Research on the Analysis of Dengue Fever in Tainan City and Kaohsiung, Taiwan during the Epidemics of 1998-2006 using Autoregressive Models

• Main Authors: Li Ling Jiang, 江麗玲
• Other Authors: Cheng Yu Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40845214062403975584

碩士 === 亞洲大學 === 生物資訊學系碩士在職專班 === 97 === In this study, dengue fever epidemics in southern Taiwan occurred in 1998-2006 were analyzed using autoregressive models to find their representative epidemic models, temporal characteristics, and constraints. Furthermore, to find the correlation between the Aedes household index and the number of cases among administrative districts, cross correlations were evaluated and compared. Because of abrupt increase in the number of cases in 2002, to characterize the difference between before- and after 2002, the dataset was segmented into two and analyzed separately, i.e. 1998-2001 and 2003-2006, at Kaohsiung city and at Tainan city. Behaviors of the epidemics before and after 2002 were analyzed and compared using autoregressive models (AR) to find the change before- and after year 2002. We found that the strengths of the epidemic spreading become stronger after 2002; in contrast, there is no corresponding control strategy on the epidemic elimination. It means that the epidemic is deteriorated, however, the efficacy of the epidemic control did not improve much after 2002 in both Kaohsiung city and Tainan city. On the other hand, the cross correlation analyses showed that there is no significant correlation between southern area and Kaohsiung-Pingtong area. However, there exist highly positive correlations between Tainan city and Tainan county, and Kaohsiung city and Kaohsiung county. It suggests that the dengue fever epidemics in southern Taiwan are highly localized. As to the correlation between the Aedes household index and the number of cases, our results showed there exists positive correlation at Taiwan city. The cross correlation analysis showed that whenever the Aedes household index increases, the number of cases climbing for next consecutive four or five months, which contradicts with a similar study in Singapore. This shall be an interesting topic for further study.