The Application of Grey Model for Short-Term Unemployment Rate Forecast

• Main Authors: HUANG,Chih-Hui, 黃志輝
• Other Authors: SHIH, NENG-YI
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/35305084729711129825

碩士 === 亞洲大學 === 資訊工程學系碩士班 === 97 === In recent years, because along with world population gradual increase, various countries in the economic policy, expanded the employment market diligently, how studied to cut the unemployment rate, has been in the policy one of important topics, however under the current financial Tsunami, various countries' unemployment rate climbed, was our country deeply its influence, how also forecast that the unemployment rate thorough discussion in order to help the economic policy was important, therefore studied an unemployment rate model, has the important research subject extremely, particularly in the short time, under the few data condition, is the nowadays economic activities change environment, therefore we proposed that the grey modelling GM(1, N), for the unemployment rate forecast model. This research is with the Gray Throry short-term forecast characteristic, inspects and the forecast in this financial storm trend of Taiwan unemployment rate, is also uses in the Executive Yuan Laborer Committee website the statistical information, obtains the unemployment rate and the correlation according to, r in the first data using the Grey Relation Analysis discove with the unemployment rate related member, then with Grey System Theory GM(1, N) way constructs its forecast model, then forecast that the unemployment rate future tendency pulsation, and will observe its result to propose the conclusion and the suggestion.