| Summary: | 碩士 === 東海大學 === 管理碩士在職專班 === 97 === Abstract
This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic, industrial and institutional factors on demand of Taiwan Postal Simple Life Insurance. With the method estimation by cointegration test, impulse response function, forecast error variance decomposition and OLS regression, we study the determinants of the demand of Postal Simple Life Insurance. The results show there is consistent pattern of cointegration for the relevant variables, suggesting the long run relationship among the variables studied in our paper. Specifically, macroeconomic indices of both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Production Index have significantly positive impact on demand of Postal Simple Life Insurance; the unemployment rate and stock index are also effective indices for demand forecast. Regarding the industrial factors, we conclude that the market interest rate of 10-year government bond has significantly negative effect on demand of Postal Life Insurance; and the population change rate affects the demand variable positively. Of importance, interest rate volatility exhibit insignificant results, which is possibly due to the portfolio diversified strategies made by investors to eliminate market uncertainty. Finally, as the announcement of the cease-selling policy, demand of Postal Simple Life Insurance increases since the expectation of higher price of new products. Furthermore, due to the cease-selling of main products and sufficiency of insured amount, the upper limit of insured amount has significant negative effect on demand.
|
|---|
