The Study of Uncertainty and Scheduling Model in Building Project

• Main Authors: Min-Lan Yang, 楊閔嵐
• Other Authors: Tsung-Chieh Tsai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2009
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64167571822313695963

博士 === 國立雲林科技大學 === 工程科技研究所博士班 === 97 === Building project is restructuring in risk causes, that existing in every project and project stages, which is the underlying main cause for most problems; that may lead to numerous schedule disruptions. This results in extremely different groups of risk factors, which would be the bottleneck, which the manager must manage in the project. In particular, in terms of time-control, building project activities are subject to considerable uncertainty, and the project delivery cannot reach the requirements as planned. In this study, Pareto diagram analysis, two-dimensional evaluation, distances of controllability are utilized to extract the consensus critical risks of practitioners. The data are analyzed from multiple points of view to explore the co-relationship among risk cause, risk strategy, risk result and project stage, and to clarify the risk mechanism and the realities of risk management. Meanwhile, according to numbers of literature to illustrate the realistic of the uncertainty of schedule plan. Finally, this study adopted the DBR to improve the relationship between activities, revise the uncertainty of activities, and used Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to revise relationship between activities, consider others critical path in Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The result indicated that, the most important risk causes were extracted for risk management. And the relationship between risk strategy and risk result shown the “Schedule postpone” and “Negotiation” risk strategies are widely adopted for all risk results. The ranking of risk causes at each stage and risk result were explored, that would helpful to understand risk causes in different project stages or risk results may caused by any risk causes.