| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 98 === The luxury goods, like diamonds, gold, silver and other precious metals, have aesthetic value and dignify the taste, widely using in various fields such as eletronics, optical instruments, and automobile industries. In recent years, the problems of global financial crisis, national debt crisis and other issues making diamonds and precious metals begin to make a mark. The value of the exiguous and the hedge function uplift the investment value. Therefore, if investors are trying to use diamonds and precious metals as an investment target, they can observe the price behavior to seek for the adequate investment timing.
Many financial time series exhibit irregular behavior. Economics theory suggests that the irregular behavior may be due to the existence of nonlinear dependence in the market. Thus, the purpose of this paper would like to examine the price behavior on five precious metals including gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium and two diamond indexes including International Diamond Exchange (IDEX) Online Diamond Prices and Israel Online Diamond Prices through long memory and chaos theory. Using the five indexes such as interest, the US dollar index, money supply, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Futures Price Index and put-call ratio, this paper applies Backpropagation Network to evaluate whether these indexes can be suitable to forecast diamonds and precious metals.
The results show that the chaos effect is exist in gold, silver, platinum, IDEX Online Diamond Prices and Israel Online Diamond Prices. It shows that the price behavior is a determined behavior. All precious metals and diamond indexes have long memory, meaning that the current price will be influenced by the stochastic events in the past. Investors could use the past events or prices as an investing reference. This paper applies Backpropagation Network in precious metals and diamonds market. The results show that the interest, the US dollar index, money supply, CRB index and put-call ratio could be a good forecasting indicator when investing in precious metals and diamonds.
|
|---|
