A Study on the Influence of Cross-Strait Macroeconomics toward Gold Price Fluctuation

• Main Authors: Yu-Kuang Chen, 陳昱光
• Other Authors: Chung-fang Ho
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/sda9xd

碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際貿易研究所 === 98 === Ordinary people use the price of crude oil, doller exchange rate and GDP to predict the fluctuation of gold commodity. Whether those variables truly affect the fluctuation of gold price is an issue to explore. This research analyze whether the fluctuation of those variables affect the price of gold and to explore the causality of the relationship between gold price and those variables. In addition, adding other factors to explore the extent of their effect. In terms of research method, this research uses regression analysis to explore the linear relationship between gold price and those variables. The research objects are gold price, gold production, crude oil price, exchange rate between US doller and NT doller, the nominal GDP per person in China, the nominal GDP per person in Taiwan. The research period is between 2002 and 2008 and using other factors to see their difference. The empirical results indicate that no matter whether it is one year, three years, and five years, as long as those variables have significant effect on gold price, they represent very large causal relationships. As a result, this research expects to use the empirical findings to use in purchasing analysis of gold. Meanwhile, this paper explores the relationship between gold price and other factors. Empirical results show that in the short term gold price is affected by the nominal GDP per person in Taiwan. In the midterm, gold price is affected by the production and exchange rate between US doller and NT doller. In the long term, gold price is affected by crude oil price and the nominal GDP per person in China. Overall, gold price can be affected by crude oil price, exchange rate between US doller and NT doller, and the nominal GDP per person in China. Investors can use the results as a reference in investment in different periods from this empirical research.