The Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations for Four Major Industries in Taiwan–the Analysis of Electronics Manufacturing, Traditional Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing , and Construction Industries

• Main Authors: Mo,Wen- Peng, 莫文鵬
• Other Authors: Tsai,Li-Ju
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/26839592271903605417

碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 金融研究所 === 98 === Abstract Title of Thesis：The Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations for Four Major Industries in Taiwan–the Analysis of Electronics Manufacturing, Traditional Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing , and Construction Industries Name of Institute：Graduate Institute of Finance, Fu-Jen Catholic University Name of Student：Wen- Peng Mo Advisor：Dr. Li-Ju Tsai Total Page：53 Keywords： Logit Regression、Corporate Credit Rating、Credit Abstract Under the global finance storm and the decrease of demand in developed countries, the global recession has made a tremendous impact on the export of Taiwan. During this depression, the unemployment rate is increasing and many companies in Taiwan run harshly. On the side of banks, the NPL (total amount of non-performing loans) problems become more serious. In this case, it is an important issue to take a positive attitude toward evaluation and management the risk, to take precaution of the NPL problem and to minimize the NPL loss. In the early time, most local banks took manual evaluation toward incorporation credit. Later, it was replaced by the model of the risk precaution. Nowadays, the banks have used the same model in every industry. However, each industry is different, such as the financial structure and the factors of NPL. If merely used the same model to predict, it would make great bias on the preciseness of the prediction. In order to find the key factors of the NPL for different industries, I have considered the practical experience and empirical results from literature review. Furthermore, I try to build the risk precaution models which fit the corresponding different industries. At the last part of the thesis, I make a comparison with my models and the original one without considering the difference among industries. The sample period of the data is from 2000 to 2008. The sample companies include Taiwan’s listed companies of four industries: the electronic manufacturer industry, the traditional manufacturer industry, the non-manufacturer industry and the construction industry. My conclusions are as below. First, I use M-W(Mann-Whitney) test and Logistic regression analysis to find the significantly influential variables, and create the risk precaution model for each industry. By the ROC (Receive Operating Characteristic) test,the prediction ability of the industry specific model is more precise than the model without considering the difference among industries. Second, the industry specific model is more efficient than the model without considering the difference among industries from the aspect of risk precaution. By the NPL rates calculated from the four industries, it has efficiently promoted the precision of the prediction.