| Summary: | 碩士 === 明道大學 === 企業高階管理碩士班 === 98 === In Taiwan, the Convenience store and the Department store supermarket industry is being at the vigorous development stage, its marketing day by day innovates, the sales line of goods also presents the diversification, how to grasp the commodity the sales tendency, is in the sales management the great importance the work, is also grasps the realization of goods pulsation the important basis.
The present paper conducts the sales predict research by the MSTR model in view of two kind of retail sales channels, the MSTR model content has the time series regression analytic method, the index smoothing procedures, the seller opinion synthesis method, and channel management rationalization parameter, and so on synthesis calculation models. This article carries on the market sales predict by the MSTR model; In the above two channels, uses the different forecast model in view of A~E kind and so on five kind of different category commodities, discusses its sales predict quantity, the accuracy. Because this research discovery these two kind of retail sales channel has the management multiplication, the product diversification, the customer status multi-densification, the purchase behavior to change and so on complexity, is not the sole forecast technique tallies sufficiently of sales predict all category commodity. The different sales predict method possibly is only suitable some kind of realization of goods predict that is unable to be suitable each kind of commodity the sales predict, even some kind of commodity its forecast deviation amount is very big. MSTR of model this research institute development, uses for to forecast that sales of this two kind of channel A~E five kind of commodity, the research discovered its predicted value and the actual value error are situated between compared to the MAPE value 0.10% to 8.43%, demonstrated that its can be effective, and widely forecasts this two channels, A~E and so on sales volumes of the five kind of commodity.
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