The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables and Major Eventson Foreign Exchange Reserves in China

• Main Authors: Hsin-ChuanChou, 周欣娟
• Other Authors: Hsin-Hong Kang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2010
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13503357020303525720

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 國際企業研究所碩博士班 === 98 === 　　The purpose of this study was to discuss the impact of macroeconomic variables and major events on foreign exchange reserves in China. The major direction of the research was to determine the key factors of macroeconomics which affect China’s foreign exchange reserves. The research was additionally designed to create dummy variables into the regression model in order to examine the correlation between foreign exchange reserves and major events, including avian influenza, the managed floating exchange rate system adopted by China, the fifteen trade policies for Taiwan proposed by China and RMB transactions released to foreign banks by China. This study used monthly data from June 2003 to August 2007. After running Klein’s Method, a Nested Hypothesis test and the Durbin-Watson Test, adopting the Least Squares Method (OLS) and creating dummy variables to analyze influence, the results indicated that variables including per capita GDP, foreign direct investment, external debt and money supply had a positive impact on China’s foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, the exchange rate variable and events including avian influenza, the managed floating exchange rate system adopted by China and RMB transactions released by China to foreign banks had a negative impact on China’s foreign exchange reserves. 　　In addition, the empirical result was consistent with expected theoretical results, therefore, this empirical model could be considered as adequate and consistent with theory.