Price factors neglected - to review the safety of oil

• Main Authors: Chang-Ming Huang, 黃昶民
• Other Authors: Pei-Chih Hao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/84444335752596714118

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 公共行政暨政策學系 === 98 === In this paper, sense of two major research questions: First, the main research topic in the traditional theory of oil security are to ensure an uninterrupted supply of the oil, and believed that the price is not rendered irrational rise when there is no issue on the supply. However, it has revealed a different situation in 2008 with this assumption: WTI oil prices presented in a very unreasonable situation of dramatically up and down. In this paper, study of the drastic change of the WTI oil prices in 2008 with a different prospection, we found that WTI oil futures market prices is having a substantial fluctuations without being under the supply disruption, which is a must factor of the traditional assumption. It shows that the traditional to ensure no disruption of oil supply as the thinking of oil security framework needs to be changed, the price factors should to be included in this framework with higher attention. The level of conventional oil security studies at the national level, to maximize the rational pursuit of the sources of supply and the exclusive pursuit of oil sources in a way which does not help to the national security, but will lead to international tensions and rising of oil prices. The second research question of this paper is to view the root cause of the huge price change of WTI oil futures market in 2008? In this paper, researches have shown that the main pricing standard of the current oil prices, the WTI oil futures market, has become an investment-type derivatives financial categories, faces the following major changes: First, international capital flows since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, presenting the trend of a high degree of mobility and the pursuit of higher return on investment, makes the market participants be diversified. In fundamentals, the supply and demand in oil can not reflect the actual prices, the traditional international oil corporations and the oil-producing countries have less impact on the oil price than before, while the international financial institutions for the growing influence of oil prices. Second, due to the price of oil depends on the financial factors, leads to the link of oil price with the fallout of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. One of the main factors for the rising oil prices in 2008, is that the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates caused oil prices with profit gap, which let a lot of money influx of the oil futures market, resulting the prices rose in the first half of 2008; and cross-largest in the sub-prime crisis, the investor's financial deleveraging forced the price fell sharply at second half of 2008. Finally, go to the financial deregulation and liberalization policies to allow the oil futures market to function is compromised, leaving the oil futures market, a lack of effective supervision and management, while the present situation of excessive speculation. The combination of three or more final result in 2008 the oil price bubble.