| Summary: | 碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 98 === The purpose of the thesis is to examine the relationship between credit card sales volumes and macroeconomic factors. The sample period is from February, 1999 to April, 2009. The sample is monthly data. The empirical evidence data is divided into two groups by the card-debt crisis happening time. One group is before the card-debt crisis, another is joined the card-debt crisis. Using the measures of Granger’s Causality Test and VAR model, the study tries to find out how a surprise event in one variable has an impact on the other variable by providing a reassessment of the relationship between credit card sales volumes and macroeconomic factors.
The empirical evidences show that the rate of change in credit card cash advances and the rate of change in Industrial Production Index have influence on the rate of change in credit cards sales volumes both before and joined the card-debt crisis. This means that the general market environment plays a role on the general public’s consumption intention. The rate of change in regular salary has an effect on the rate of change in credit card sales volumes before the card-debt crisis. It reveals that salaries influence the purchase intention of using card.Credit card sales volumes is also influenced by the rate of change in Consumer Price Index and the rate of change in Taiwan Weighting Stock Price Index in the period of joined the card-debt crisis. In other words, livehood price and stock market condition influence consumer’s purchase intention of using card. The result of testing data of before the card-debt crisis and joined the card-debt crisis through using forecast error variance decomposition, it reveals that self-explanation proportion of credit card sales volumes drops to 41.87% from 46.14%.
The first conclusion of empirical evidences is that the rate of change in credit card cash advances, Industrial Production Index and regular salary are important variances of affecting credit card sales volumes in these two periods. The second conclusion of empirical evidences is that in the period of joined the card-debt crisis,credit card sales volumes is affected by these two important variances: the rate of change in Consumer Price Index and the rate of change in Taiwan Weighting Stock Price Index . To sum up, the interactions of credit card sales volumes and macroeconomic factors are more significant in period of joined the card-debt crisis than they are before the card-debt crisis.
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