Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price
碩士 === 中華大學 === 運輸科技與物流管理學系碩士班 === 99 === To predict traffic volume, data collection usually cost a lot of human power, time and money. In this study, a macroscopic dynamic traffic competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model is developed so as to predict passenger volume of the public transp...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Others |
Language: | zh-TW |
Published: |
2011
|
Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98990645963374666986 |
id |
ndltd-TW-099CHPI5425016 |
---|---|
record_format |
oai_dc |
spelling |
ndltd-TW-099CHPI54250162015-10-13T20:22:59Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98990645963374666986 Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price 考慮油價變動之動態城際大眾運具運量競爭模式與分析 Lin,Chih-Yuan 林智媛 碩士 中華大學 運輸科技與物流管理學系碩士班 99 To predict traffic volume, data collection usually cost a lot of human power, time and money. In this study, a macroscopic dynamic traffic competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model is developed so as to predict passenger volume of the public transportation in Taiwan. This study considers four kinds of transportation services, which are high-speed rail, airline, rail road and intercity coach. Firstly, different dynamic traffic prediction models are compared and evaluated by the R-square value. The data is classified into three kinds of time interval. In addition, the oil price is considered as an external variable to describe the social-economical variation. According to results of the analysis, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the R-squared value are employed to choose reasonable models. The thresholds of both criteria are 50% and 0.8, respectively. According to the criteria, six possible models are discussed. By analyzing the coefficients of the interaction term, four models among the six possible models are reasonable. However, the results are quite different with the employing data and the external variables. Therefore, the social-economic variables and the studying time period should be analyzed in detail in further researches. Lo,Shih-Ching 羅仕京 2011 學位論文 ; thesis 78 zh-TW |
collection |
NDLTD |
language |
zh-TW |
format |
Others
|
sources |
NDLTD |
description |
碩士 === 中華大學 === 運輸科技與物流管理學系碩士班 === 99 === To predict traffic volume, data collection usually cost a lot of human power, time and money. In this study, a macroscopic dynamic traffic competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model is developed so as to predict passenger volume of the public transportation in Taiwan. This study considers four kinds of transportation services, which are high-speed rail, airline, rail road and intercity coach. Firstly, different dynamic traffic prediction models are compared and evaluated by the R-square value. The data is classified into three kinds of time interval. In addition, the oil price is considered as an external variable to describe the social-economical variation. According to results of the analysis, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the R-squared value are employed to choose reasonable models. The thresholds of both criteria are 50% and 0.8, respectively. According to the criteria, six possible models are discussed. By analyzing the coefficients of the interaction term, four models among the six possible models are reasonable. However, the results are quite different with the employing data and the external variables. Therefore, the social-economic variables and the studying time period should be analyzed in detail in further researches.
|
author2 |
Lo,Shih-Ching |
author_facet |
Lo,Shih-Ching Lin,Chih-Yuan 林智媛 |
author |
Lin,Chih-Yuan 林智媛 |
spellingShingle |
Lin,Chih-Yuan 林智媛 Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price |
author_sort |
Lin,Chih-Yuan |
title |
Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price |
title_short |
Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price |
title_full |
Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price |
title_fullStr |
Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling and Analyses of Dynamic Intercity Public Transportation Competition with Variational Oil Price |
title_sort |
modeling and analyses of dynamic intercity public transportation competition with variational oil price |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98990645963374666986 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT linchihyuan modelingandanalysesofdynamicintercitypublictransportationcompetitionwithvariationaloilprice AT línzhìyuàn modelingandanalysesofdynamicintercitypublictransportationcompetitionwithvariationaloilprice AT linchihyuan kǎolǜyóujiàbiàndòngzhīdòngtàichéngjìdàzhòngyùnjùyùnliàngjìngzhēngmóshìyǔfēnxī AT línzhìyuàn kǎolǜyóujiàbiàndòngzhīdòngtàichéngjìdàzhòngyùnjùyùnliàngjìngzhēngmóshìyǔfēnxī |
_version_ |
1718046400913080320 |