| Summary: | 碩士 === 大葉大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班 === 99 === The market of dry bulk freight is a nearly open perfect competitive market and the freight is decided by the market equilibrium condition. The bulk materials of dry bulk freight are coals, iron ores, and grains. The price of marine transit is influenced by the price of raw materials such as crude oil, coal, steel and grain. With the rapid development of Emerging Market economy, the increased demand for steel has made China, one of BRIC, become the greatest import country of iron ore all over the world. As a re-sult, China has great economic impact on bulk shipping market. This re-search focuses on the study of the relationship between Baltic Dry Index and the price of raw materials.
This research discusses the relationship between Baltic Dry Index and the price of raw materials by means of VAR model. The selecting data are the weekly data between 2000 and 2010. The empirical results show the significant positive causal relationship between iron and coal prices and BDI. Iron and coal prices have greater and more significant influence on BDI. On the other hand, BDI does not show significant predominance over prices of crude oil and grains. In addition, the unexpected impacts or acci-dental changes of iron and coal prices have the greatest influence on other variables. The analysis of variance shows that iron and coal prices have greater exogenous. BDI and prices of crude oil and grain have less influ-ence on iron and coal prices. Overall, the indicative effects of BDI are not as important as expected while iron and coal prices have greater indicative effects.
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