| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) === 99 === China’s growing energy needs have turned renewable energy into a crucial factor necessary for its social stability and national security. This paper has been written with the understanding that the role renewable energy plays in the Chinese industry and market will be nothing less than critical in coming decades. Solar PV electricity is one of the most promising renewable energy technologies and is a fast growing industry. However in China there exists a huge gap between its market potential and current achievements in the field.
This thesis paper depicts the evolutionary path China is currently undergoing from a heavy reliance on fossil produced energy to a balanced energy mix by examining its solar PV industry and market. Its major argument is that as transitional processes require long term vision and planning, the potential of china’s energy transition to solar energy needs to be assessed under a set of criteria that can trace a long term development path. By using the six core elements introduced by the evolutionary economics theory, this paper presents a unique in depth analysis of China’s transitional efforts toward solar PV grid parity.
The paper has reached three major conclusions. The first and most important is that the Chinese central government seems to be making genuine efforts in promoting solar PV as one of the nation’s future energy sources. These efforts have been marked by assessing governmental legislation concerning Bounded Rationality issues and various incentive programs. The Renewable Energy Law and the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan have served as instrumental driving forces to the immature market. Local governments have shown significant commitment by providing substantial support to the PV industry as well to Co-evolutionary technologies such as inverters and batteries. Legislation has had limited success in handling Lock In issues such as connection to the national grid and real price reflection of conventional energy.
The second conclusion is that although the market is still at an early stage of its development, it relies too heavily on Selection promotions, namely direct subsidies. Recent developments in the PV market growth in China can mostly be regarded to the Golden Sun program and the BIPV program. These efforts have been an important promoter in raising global awareness to the potential of its solar sector. However this form of subsidy does not present a long term sustainable growth solution. The lack of a national Fid in Tariff scheme (despite few specific provincial schemes) and existing problems concerning projects tendering process cause an imbalance in terms of market and industry Diversity. This unbalance appears in the form of lack of Diversity in project developers, being mostly local state owned or highly affiliated with the government enterprises.
The third conclusion is that China’s government can and should give more focus on domestic Innovation. Currently the country’s national R&D investment is significantly lower than market leaders in Europe. China’s education system does not support more than several world class solar PV electricity research centers and its industry development relies on expensive imported technology and international collaboration. Most companies in the industry hold a short term development vision which affects technological Diversity, mostly in the upstream segments of polysilicon and ingot production. Lack of attention towards a diverse range of future PV and Co-evolutionary technologies limits industry development to specific sectors that have low technological barriers.
The paper concludes that while China is well positioned for further expansion of its market it still lacks in specific aspects of its transitional path. This analysis is unique as it presents not only an up to date market and industry status but also refers to their future growth potential. This paper presents a wide range of aspects that directly affect solar PV’s future development. Its true value lies within the usage of the evolutionary economics approach as a theoretical framework, which allows us to gain better understanding of how the different aspects related to the solar PV world affect each other and the fitness of this historic transition.
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