| Summary: | 碩士 === 南開科技大學 === 福祉科技與服務管理所 === 99 === 1. Objectives
This study aims to explore the association between aging society and suicide. We utilized the age-period-cohort model to estimate the three effects, age effect, period effect, and cohort effect, associated with time trend of the suicidal mortality rate in Taiwan. These three estimated effects not only would confirm association between aging and suicidal mortality rate but also provide some helpful information for policy makers to institute some interventions for suicide in the future.
2.Materials and Methods
Data used in this study comes from 1977-2006 vital statistics at the Department of Health, and 1977-2006 demographic fact books at the Ministry of the Interior. The suicidal mortality was identified by ICD-9 codes E950-959 in the vital statistics. The APC (age-period-cohort) model was used to investigate three effects, age effect, period effect, and cohort effect, associated with time trend of the suicidal mortality rate in order to confirm the relationship among age, period, cohort and suicidal mortality rate in Taiwan.
3.Results
Our empirical results showed that the peak of the age effect appeared at aged 20-24, and 60-74, meaning that the risk of suicidal mortality at aged 20-24, and 60-74 was higher than their counterparts. However, the upward trend of the risk of suicidal mortality at aged 60-74 was weak. The risk of suicidal mortality decreases with aged higher than 74. To sum up, the aged effect is weakly associated with the suicidal mortality. Our estimated period effect showed that the suicidal mortality rate has an upward trend since 1992, a result coinciding with the aging population increases since 1993 in Taiwan. The period effect confirmed the risk of suicidal mortality aroused by aging society. The cohort effect showed that the elder birth cohort has a higher risk of suicidal mortality than the younger birth cohort. These three effects assured association among age, period, cohort and suicidal mortality. Therefore, the government should implement an intervention for some specific groups in response to the increase of suicidal mortality in Taiwan.
4.Conclusion
With the rapidly aging population in Taiwan, the authorities from the Department of Health, and the Ministry of the Interior should pay more attention on the suicidal prevention and on the research for the trend cohabited with aging and suicides in order to improve the suicidal intervention in Taiwan.
Key words: age-period-cohort model, aging, suicide
|
|---|
