The Relationship between The Longevity, Low Birth Rate and Macroeconomic Variables-VAR Model

• Main Authors: Wan-jung Lin, 林宛蓉
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20108665958065227663

碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 99 === This article uses 1971 Years to 2010 Year Taiwan general time series data, discussion of long life, less child and whether the macro-economic variables interact. We first conduct the unit root test for all variables in the empirical model. The data are number of births, male, females average residual life, labor, economic growth rates, savings rates, consumer price index, unemployment rate and the stock price index of all nine variables VAR model. VAR model test of causation, analysis of impulse response function and prediction error decomposition to long life and less of the child and the relationship between macro-economic variables. Empirical results show that in verification of causality, and rates of economic growth in the number of births, the number of births and the savings rate has two-way causal relationship, while the average residual life with no causal relationship to all variables. Through the impulse response function, overall by the variable to the number of births in the first 5 have positive and negative effects, but then approach zero; the variable impact on mean residual life is not quite approach zero. Through prediction error decomposition of a surname , born, mean residual life and labour of the number 1 itself explanations coercivity way deg maximum, and unemployment rates, stock indices and savings rates on its own explain low coercivity. Fewer children through empirical results, really impact the overall economic variables, if the future does not rise in the number of births falling, Taiwan's economy will impact; and long life to the overall economic impact is not significant in the study of the effect.