The Impact of the Financial Tsunami on the Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry--The Bullwhip Effect Analysis

• Main Authors: Tsai-Fu Wu, 吳財福
• Other Authors: Ji Chou
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/25848109582402306185

碩士 === 世新大學 === 經濟學研究所(含碩專班) === 99 === The study conducts a bullwhip effect analysis on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. We divide the semiconductor industry into three sub-industries namely: IC design and wafer foundries (IC), testing and packing (PT), and electronic component (EP) to present upper-stream, middle -stream, and down-stream in semiconductor industry respectively. The examining period is from January of 2006 to December of 2010. In the descriptive statistic analysis, we find that the coefficient of variation of IC is greater than PT’s, and PT’s coefficient of variation is greater than EP’s. The empirical results are shown as following: (1) the difference of the logarithm in the series is stationary when the unit root test is conducted. (2) the minimum value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is found at the lag 8. (3) the high value of R-squared, implying highly explanatory powers among three variables(with lag terms) from the Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) analysis. (4) the causality is found from down-stream industry to upper-stream industry in the Granger Causality Test. (5) from Impulse Response Function Analysis (IRF): the response of design and wafer foundries to the shocked in electronic component is greater than the response of electronic component to the shocked in design and wafer foundries. The study finds a significant bull-effect in Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. Since large portion of Taiwan industrial products is from electronic related industries such as semiconductor, any shock from consumer electronic product could have large impacts on semiconductor, and Taiwan economy is suffered deeply. Therefore the diversification of Taiwan industrial structure is needed to reduce the loss from the immediate shock such as the Financial Tsunami.