Apply of Grey System Theory to the Number of Elementary School Teachers in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Ming-Ching Hsieh, 謝明卿
• Other Authors: 許寶東
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/42292516954118295605

碩士 === 樹德科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 99 === Recently, due to the teacher education policy has been reformed and modified several times. The teacher training program shifted from exclusive to opened, monistic to diverse, government paid to non-government paid. In addition, social and economy transformation and low birth rates also result in the problem of serious imbalance in teacher demand and supply. More and more pre-service teachers have become what we call “nomadic teachers”. It reveals that teacher education policy in Taiwan needs to be reviewed and improved. This study is based on document research. The variables data come from the number of elementary school teachers, rate between teacher and student, average class size, the number of school-age children, Gross National Product and the total number of elementary school classes in recent five years. The objective of this research is to apply Grey System Theory to forecast the count of elementary school teachers in Taiwan area. Grey System Theory requires less numbers, is fitting the conditions of predicting the number of elementary school teachers and has high accuracy. Moreover, it can also arrange Influential Factors of Changes in the number of elementary school teachers accurately. Based on the above research findings, the study can not only avoid excess manpower investing into teacher market, but also point out several suggestions for the policy-making of the educational administrative authorities.