A Comparison of Various Sales Forecasting Models:An Example of Indonesian Motorcycle Industry

• Main Authors: Yanni Putri, 陳順玲
• Other Authors: Prof. Jimmy Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 100
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73062052180591855548

碩士 === 南台科技大學 === 企業管理系 === 99 === In Indonesia, motorcycle industries have reasonably successful. The success of Indonesia motorcycle industry is due to fortuitous circumstances: there is a large domestic market and there are just four major producers. The market has grown rapidly in the recent years. The market growth was remarkable, even causing problem for producers to meet demand. Demand for motorcycles in Indonesia is expected to continue to rise because motorcycles are still vital means of public transport. To avoid lost sales or stock-out situations, accurate forecasting is needed. Accurate forecast will help company to meet customer demand. Besides that, there are still many benefits from accurate forecasting, such as: better operations information, increased customer service, increased manufacturing and operating efficiency, higher productivity, stability in planning, reduces finished goods inventory, elimination of waste, increased profitability, and so forth. Poor forecasting performance can contribute to major financial losses. There are a lot of forecasting methods that can be used to estimate future. A company may find it difficult to decide which method that is the most appropriate for forecasting, because the best model fit does not guarantee the most accurate after the fact. The difficulty to find method that fit best and can provide accurate forecast is the main problem in this study. In this study, various forecasting method was used to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used.