A Study for the Effect of Capital/Cash flow to Capital Markets

• Main Authors: Yi-Chin Chen, 陳怡瑾
• Other Authors: Yen-Sen Ni
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/14709361137446118278

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 管理科學研究所碩士班 === 99 === Capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) have been characterized by high volatility since the 1980s. Overall, savings have flowed uphill from EMEs to advanced economies, challenging the conventional view that capital flows to EMEs are always beneficial through augmentation of their resources leading to greater investment. Full capital account liberalization can impart avoidable volatility and have an adverse impact on growth prospects of EMEs. Widespread support for capital account liberalization in emerging markets has recently shifted to skepticism and even support for capital controls in certain circumstances. This sea-change in attitudes has been bolstered by the inconclusive macroeconomic evidence on the benefits of capital account liberalization. There are several compelling reasons why it is difficult to measure the aggregate impact of capital controls in very different countries. Previous studies have detected return and volatility across cash flow during periods. In this paper we focus our attention on the asset prices and how different capital markets are influencing each other. We find residential property price developments and money growth shocks accumulated over the boom periods are able to well explain the depth of post-boom recessions. We observe various macroeconomic variables in Asset prices, nominal rigidities, and monetary policy. We further suggest that cash flow are a driving factor for real estate prices during boom episodes.