APPLYING FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR PROJECT PROPOSAL RISK ASSESSMENT

• Main Authors: Yann-Hwang Wu, 吳熖煌
• Other Authors: Yung-Jen Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2011
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64956579318358198511

碩士 === 大同大學 === 工程管理碩士在職專班 === 99 === In the highly competitive engineering field, it is fully occupied with uncertainty factors. Every engineering-construction project contains many unpredictable and risky issues at every stage such as: planning, design, procurement, fabrication, manufacturing, construction, start up, operation, and turning-over the plant or field to the owner and as well as the warranty. The contractor shall prepare an adequate risk management plan, which can reduce the impact of unpredicted risks during project proposal stage. The project risks cover commercial terms and conditions, and the technical, internal and external environments in the ITB (Invitation to Bid). All those risk factors must be evaluated prior to issuing project proposal. This thesis will base on the risk factors, which may happen in chemical and power project proposal. A risk breakdown structure of these risk factors is setted up. Then a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) model is built. Historically, the project manager always performs the risk assessment based on his/her past experiences, however good or bad those experiences may be. As a result, the project manager is unable to assess the risks of a proposed project impersonally, but will always be affected by his/her past experiences. Questionnaire form has been received the expert’s assessment on risk level by again making pair comparisons between risks. A model of the FAHP will be developed with weighted coefficients, rankings and categorizing the levels of risk. The strategy of response for high risk levels shall be presented for top management reference or for making the final decisions. The results indicated the trend of weighted coefficients, and ranking among all risky factors are similar with recent developments in the engineering-construction field. Consequently, this thesis proves FAHP applied to the project proposal risk assessment is beneficial.