| Summary: | 碩士 === 萬能科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 99 === Demand forecasting is one of the primary tasks for business management. Automotive industry in Taiwan has been mature and stable, and it also contributes a certain part in gross domestic prduct (GDP). Moreover, automotive industry is a kind of capital- and technology-intensive industry so that it can help to develop related industries which could have a crucial impact to macroeconomics. Automotive industry generally bases on sales data in the past and rules of thumb to do the prediction. In order to make sales prediction more reliable, building a suitable and effective demand forcasting model is quite important.
Most of research about automotive demand forcasting is finished in the time with blooming economic and period when automotive industry were with high level of growth. On the other hand, this research is focus on the influence to Taiwanese automotive industry when Taiwanese automotive industry encounters some difficult economic and political situations such as offshore migration of business, raising unemployment rate, opening market competition after joining WTO and singing ECFA et cetera. By case-based resoning and aggression analysis, there will be a chance to build a appropriate model to predict car’s sales volume in Taiwan area.
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