Paired Comparison Models for Ranking Major League Baseball Teams

• Main Authors: Chan, Lan-Ti, 詹嵐迪
• Other Authors: Chi Lo
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64524339156365530296

碩士 === 中華大學 === 應用統計學系碩士班 === 100 === This thesis studies the within-pair order effect of paired comparison tied models. The object of study is the U.S. Major League Baseball. The main application of paired comparison model is to identify the winning probability and the ranking for all the teams. The article introduces the origin of all models and the relationship between all the models. Then the parameters of the model are estimated and associated hypotheses are tested. Finally, the information from collected data is analyzed by the Bradley-Terry model, Davidson, model and multiplicative order effect Davidson model to incorporate ties and conclusions are made. In the Bradley-Terry model, the “true” ratings of 14 teams in American League are not all equal. The result is Yankees ranked the first and the Angels ranked the second and the last one is the Orioles. There is no significant difference in the ratings between Yankees and Angels. The “true” ratings of 16 teams in National League are not all equal. The result is Cardinals ranked the first and the Phillies ranked the second and the last one is the Nationals. There is no significant difference in the ratings between Cardinals and Phillies. The “true” ratings of 30 teams in American and National League are not all equal. The result is Yankees ranked the first and the Angels ranked the second and the last one is the Nationals. There is no significant difference in the ratings between Yankees and Angels. American League ranking does not change in the Davidson model to consider a tie. The first rank is Phillies and the second rank is Dodgers in National League. The ranking of the American League and National League have no change. In the Davidson model incorporating the tie and the multiplicative order effect, American League ranking does not change. The first rank is Phillies and the second rank is Dodgers in National League. The ranking of the American League and National League have no change. Yankees ranked the first and the Angels ranked the second and the last one is the Nationals.