Using GM (1,1) to improve the utility of insolation information for efficient voltage prediction of PV maximum power output

• Main Authors: Jeng-Lung Tsai, 蔡政龍
• Other Authors: Yu-Fang Hsu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/38577671269566284633

碩士 === 建國科技大學 === 電子工程系暨研究所 === 100 === Among the maximum power point tracking methods, this work combines the traditional perturbation-and-observation operation and the grey prediction with GM (1, 1) model to predict the value of next coming insolation. The proposed method tracks the voltage of maximum power point in advance at the possible next insolation condition and thus can gradually adjust the output voltage of the control unit. Accordingly, the PV has the smoother output power performance between two insolation samples, and avoids providing a jumping output voltage from the control unit. Technically, a linear interpolation method is firstly used to increase the data amount of insolation and the gray prediction is adopted to predict the voltage at the maximal power point on the purpose of enhancing the number of insolation samples. In the computer simulations, the method of linear interpolation is used to increase the illumination samples. There are 1, 3 and 9 data between the adjacent two samples, respectively, and then to explore the influence of the equivalent sampling periods when predicting the maximum power voltage accuracy. As a result, the simulations show that the involved interpolation technique can decrease the prediction error of insolation from 20.8% to 0.08% because of increasing the utilizing rate of the actual insolation samples from 7% to 94%.