| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 工業與系統工程研究所 === 100 === The uncertain market demand of semiconductor IC products makes a company rise its inventory cost if the demand forecast cannot work properly. If a company can make accurate forecasts, it might avoid some parts of unnecessary losses. Although the forecast is not one hundred percent correct, a manager still can catch sufficient information to manage the product inventory. This study intends to build a forecasting model by using AweSim simulation tool to predict the semiconductor IC design industry inventory levels, to explore the impact of the main variables for the IC design industry inventory, as well as to operate sales process with the predict data.
In this study, through simulation and verification of the analysis and forecast, it can be shown the model with demand pull appropriately adjust the target inventory levels. The predict model constructed by the simulation system program can be tuned by different user needs (such as the correct number of weeks) and modes of correction methods (but not to amend the exponential smoothing, weighted average, exponential trend) continued to be corrected. The analysis results showed that all models predict the evaluation index MAPE average of less than 0.3%, visible simulation system, the program itself prediction is quite satisfactory. The forecasted inventory value by the exponential trend is closer to the actual value, so the forecast is more ideal.
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