A Study on the Valuation Model for Superficies Right-based Houses

• Main Authors: Yuan-Yuan Huang, 黃媛媛
• Other Authors: Chi-Hong Ho
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/46420690281992608276

碩士 === 崑山科技大學 === 房地產開發與管理研究所 === 100 === From the viewpoint of house buyers and their financial returns, this study aims to apply the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method of investment theory so as to evaluate the fair value of superficies right-based houses. By collecting the historical rental data of five administrative districts within Taipei City from Mother Tsui’s Foundation, to combine with the long-term historical macro-economical data of Taipei City and the short-term (2001-2010) social economical data of five administrative districts, the so-called Panel Data has been used. Then the multi-variable stepwise regression is employed. Results demonstrate that one macro-economical variable, i.e. Taipei City Construction Engineering Pricing Index or CCI, and another social economical variable of five administrative districts within Taipei City, i.e. the Disposable Income per capita or IPj, do have significant influence to house rent level of Taipei City. Then the historical (1978-2010) Public Released Land Value Inflation Rate of Taipei City, which has been released 9 times up to now, are used to conduct a simple regression analysis, by transforming the land value inflation rate into the index form, and then find out the time variable t will significantly influence the Public Released Land Value Index (LI). Finally a sensitivity analysis is conducted with the above-mentioned three independent variables to the influenced variable, i.e. house rent level of Taipei City, for a real world case of superficies right-based house in Taipei. Then the Disposable Income per capita or IPj of each administrative district is found to be the most sensitive variable to house rent level. That is to say, to focus on the Disposable Income per capita of each administrative district will make house buyers to be able to control their major investment risk. In conclusion, current practical real estate appraisal is often taking the house rent as a constant value or to change with a fixed growth rate for predigest, that will definitely produce bias in the predicted cash flow of the property, and the situation will get worse when the time frame of the superficies right period gets longer.