| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 100 === In order to get with the environment changing quickly, survey the changing of environment and trends by foresight. There are always a gap between forecast and reality due to the different combination of foresight methods. Consider several methods used for foresight, such as The Foresight, The Vision and The Scenario Planning, and combine them into a complete foresight research framework by the meaning, characteristic, and the limit of each method, named “The Construction and Application on Methodology of Markov Chain for Foresight Scenario Planning”
Analysis the case of the development of the Service Industry in 2015, the vision will be taking the abilities and the advantages we own, combining the unique culture and characteristic. While planning we separate the planning period into two stages, observing the type of key factors changing during the time period, and the influence toward the Service industry that would be classified into three clusters ：”policy, ” ”the support of technology,” ”the industry characteristic,” and consider those factors from the extra environment by Social, Technical, Ecological, Economic and Political-legal to describe the scenario, which not only show the environment changing but also help making a policy. Observing the trigger points to check those factors of uncertain states whether on anticipated possible routes or not, meanwhile to decide when to invest funding and resource to help rising the probability to get the vision. Provide a new and flawless method to foresight those key factors and scenario in the future by the Markov Foresight Scenario Planning method. Show those planning steps which connecting to the vision by case study to get a more specific and better result.
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