The relationship between livelihood industries and the business cycle in the United States

• Main Authors: Chih-Hung Teng, 鄧志宏
• Other Authors: Chao-Shin Chiao
• Format: Others
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/qbxj25

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 企業管理學系 === 100 === The study mainly explores the relationship between the economic business cycle period and livelihood industries of the U.S.A. The study not only analyzes the developing status quo of the American livelihood industries relevant industry but simultaneously explores the trend of these livelihood industries stock indexes as well. The study tests the difference and homology in explanation of the expansion and shrinking period during the American business cycle period. The research period starts from January, 1970 to July, 2011, altogether 499 monthly data. The verification data are the American livelihood industries index, including five kinds of indexes of the food industry index, the beer industry index, the smoke industry index ,the toy industry index and the fun industry index. After empirical validation, it is found that the food industry relevant index leads the low point of the American business cycle one month or above; therefore, it can be regarded as a kind of leading indicator of the economic business cycle. Next, it is also found that five kinds of livelihood industries indexes and the high point of the American business cycle have the mutually leading or lagging situation.