Study of Sales Forecasting-The Case of T Company Hualien Sales Office

• Main Authors: Ming-De Yang, 楊明德
• Other Authors: Chip-Peng Chu
• Format: Others
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/c5y452

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 管理學院高階經營管理碩士在職專班 === 100 === An important in efficiency of the logistic systems can reduce the cost of operation and promote and customer satisfaction, thus creating a competitive edge for the company. With sales forecast being the foundation of the stock and logistic managements, the significance of which cannot be overlooked. The study took the T firm Hualien division as the research subject, and it categorized its products by their most prominent aspects. Various forecast models will be applies to each category of products, the most accurate forecast models can be determined for each product categories, thus drawing reference to other similar products of the same categories. The conclusion of the study: First, due to new and gift merchandises are to classify as rare data and high level of uncertain merchandises that those products apply grey prediction; general stable growth type of merchandises apply trend prediction; general wave type of merchandises apply moving weighted average method to design for the preeminent prediction results; general stable recession merchandises apply moving weighted average method to gain fine prediction results. Second, keeping the latest seasonal index makes more accurate in prediction results, also makes prediction results meet the marketing tendency more. Third, in regression analysis, sales promotion and seasonal factor are the most cooperative factors to assemble merchandises, but the least effective to recession merchandises. Forth, integrate computer technology with human instincts to operate the prediction, in addition to improving the quality of prediction and making prediction more accurate.