| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 風險管理與保險研究所 === 100 === ABSTRACT
The loose monetary policies worldwide have led to large flows of liquid capital and rising prices of gold and food. The massive inflow of hot money into the Asian market has been accompanied by the revaluation of Asian currencies and the risk of liquid assets. Besides the European debt crisis and US debt, global stock markets are sharply lower. The circumstances are changing rapidly in the economic and financial markets. Banks are facing increasing risks and earning meager profits in a highly competitive market. If construction loans are extended to the builders with fine reputations, there will be more opportunities for individual mortgage loans. While extending mortgage loans, banks are able to promote their products and services such as corporate finance, foreign exchange, credit cards, wealth management, and so on. It makes for a win-win solution.
The research follows a cohort of block mortgage accommodators for a long period of time and investigates their payment behavior, from the drawdown date to the time when the mortgage was discharged or the research ceased (the end of August, 2011). According to each loan entry, the monthly payments are recorded chronologically, including the principal, interest and defaults. The conclusions of the positive analysis conducted every six months are as follows:
(1) About 3-4 years after the mortgage is taken, is a critical period of prepayment, sum total of principal, interest receivable and calculation of the default ratio. If the evaluation and change status level of the risk prediction alert model can be applied, the default problem can be found at an early stage in order to reduce the loss of sales.
(2) The study has applied the Chi-Square Test to examine the statistical analysis in cross-tabulation for gender with regard to discharge, labor loan, default and the variable of age range. There is a significant relationship of gender to age .
Keywords: mortgage, prepayment, block mortgage, default risk
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