| Summary: | 碩士 === 中國文化大學 === 地學研究所地理組碩士班 === 100 === Broad ranges of urban planning policy factors affect urban expansion. Considering many different factors of urban expansion, various Government policies will deeply affect the future city development. Before making a good policy decision, government should consider the factors affecting urban development and simulate of the influence on the policy in order to obtain better benefits for regional development. In recent years, new Geosimulation technology can simulate complex geographical phenomena, make predictions and display the urban growth simulation results. To study the simulation of urban expansion, Cellular Automata (CA) is a popular method in geographic simulation, and in many cases, The SLEUTH urban growth simulation model, based on the CA theory, has been shown to achieve good simulation results.
In this study, in order to understand the impact of policy on urban growth, the SLEUTH model was applied in greater Taipei, considered three different types of policy: region consolidation, transportation and environmental sensitivity, and simulate the future urban growth. Kappa statistical analysis method was used to exam the predicted result with the actual situation, and the model reaches 88.68% of prediction accuracy. It shows that SLEUTH is an effective tool for simulating urban growth in greater Taipei.
After the study, the simulated result of region consolidation case shows that region consolidation of the combination with New Taipei City urban growth is faster. When planning the region consolidation policy, one should seriously consider including in New Taipei City. In the transportation case, when new transportation policy is applied, the urban growth type is more close, the speed of the urban growth becomes faster, and the higher level of road, the road gravity influenced urban growth is more important. In the environmentally sensitive simulation case, city development is limited and city growth is slower. In the future, before make a decision, policy makers should carry on simulation of urban expansion, and try to understand the influence of different policies on urban expansion, which will help lead to better policies.
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