| Summary: | 碩士 === 東海大學 === 統計學系 === 100 === Accident is always the most important problem related to the safety of people. In this study, we attempt to explore the trend of accident affects the years of potential life lost and economic loss in the past 25 years. Lee-Carter Model is used for exploring the trend of death rate, the years of potential life lost is calculated based on the information about the life expectancy, and Human Capital Method is used for figuring out the economic loss caused by accident. Finally, times series ARIMA model is applied for predicting the economic loss caused by the accident. Also, the years of potential life lost and social economic loss caused by motor vehicle accident are discussed since it accounts for bulk of the accident. The results show that the trend of accident mortality rate gets upward and then downward in the past 25 years; it attains the highest with 70.04 people per 100,000 population died in 1989, the trend is downward after 1989 if 921 earthquake in 1999 and Morak typhoon in 2009 are excluded. The trend of motor vehicle mortality rate attains the highest with 37.92 people per 100,000 population died in 1988, and it’s downward after 1988. Because the legislations of riders wear helmets compulsorily in 1997, the motor vehicle mortality rate has dropped significantly since then. Using the population of Taiwan in 2000 as standard, in terms of the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population caused by accident are 31.13, 21.44 , and 10.06 years; the working years of potential life lost per 1,000 population are 29.56, 17.55, and 7.34 years in 1989,1999, and 2009 respectively. Years of potential life lost per 1,000 population caused by motor vehicle accident are 16.88, 9.62, and 5.09 years; the working years of potential life lost per 1,000 population are 16.17, 8.18, and 3.84 years in 1989, 1999, and 2009 respectively. The economic loss caused by accident after the adjusting of 2009 CPI, attains the highest with 490.37 billion NT dollars in 1993, the economic loss is 165.79 billion NT dollars in 2009 and it goes downward with 410.15 billion NT dollars after 1999. The economic loss caused by motor vehicle accident attains the highest at 272.09 billion NT dollars in 1995, and the trend goes downward after then expects for 2003 to 2005 it goes upward. The economic loss is 86.99 billion NT dollars in 2009. From 1985 to 2009, the economic losses caused by accident and motor vehicle accident decline 37.52% and 32.95% respectively. In addition, the predictions of time series models show that the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population are 8.86, 8.05, and 7.23 years; the working years of potential life lost per 1,000 are 6.32, 5.52, and 4.72 years; the economic losses are 147.55, 127.89, and 108.23 billion NT dollars caused by accident for the next three years respectively. The predictions shown by time series models indicate the years of potential life lost per 1,000 population caused by motor vehicle accident are 4.47, 4.17, and 3.28 years; the working years of potential life lost per 1,000 population are 3.60, 3.45, and 2.90 years; the economic losses are 79.24, 65.42, and 46.19 billion NT dollars in the next three years respectively. The results of the study would be a good reference for preventing strategy of allocating resources about the accident of the Government.
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