The Dynamic Relationship Between Mortgage Loan and Macroeconomics Variables for Agricultural Financial Institutes-Case Study of X Farmers’ Association

• Main Authors: Shou-Ming Shih, 石壽明
• Other Authors: Dr. Wo-Chiang Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2012
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/22119932815141700043

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 100 === Among the operating performance of the agricultural financial institutions, the highest proportion of contribution is real estate loans. In this study, we select the more urbanization farmers’ association during the two decades. We first apply the OLS model to investigate the correlation between real estate loan of farmers'' associations and four related macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that M1B, stock index, monitoring indicators, CPI and M1B * Stock Price Index (cross multiply term) are significant on the loan amount. Where M1B has a positive impact on the loan.amount. Stock index was negative correlated with the loan amount. Monitoring indicators has a positive significant correlation with the loan amount. Moreover, the CPI index exhibits a negative change to the loan amount. M1B * Stock Price index (cross multiply term) has a positive change to the loan amount. We further to apply the quantile regression model to investigate significant of the variables to different quantile loan amount. The results represent that most of the variables has the same sign with OLS model except monitoring indicators. The results can provide for agricultural financial institutions as the policy reference which’s risk-taking ability is relatively weak and increasingly competitive.